Even though profit margins on must-have items are slim (at best,) Black Friday is an important barometer of the overall enthusiasm for the holiday shopping. Historically, Thanksgiving weekend accounts for almost 12% of total holiday sales and BF accounts about half that figure. For individual retailers, the stakes are incredibly high: it can be impossible to recover from a weak start to holiday sales. Two years ago, margins quickly evaporated in an attempt to induce spending and move inventory off of shelves… it was a catastrophe. There's cautious consensus out there betting that pent up demand and upticks in both consumer spending this month and optimism about the economic outlook among affluent households will yield a successful holiday.
Much has been made of in recent years of Cyber Monday (horrible name), which is the day Americans return to work and go shopping online. Offers of free shipping and deals consumers may have missed on Friday are made available online. These promotions are being extended as early as the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. This is good news not only for employers who get precious little output on Monday, but also takes significant pressure off retailers' stores channel. Early online promotions are one way to head off stampede concerns at your local Walmart.
So here's a holiday wish for all of you who are braving the stores this year… I hope you find civility and good service in addition to the items you're looking for. When you don't, I wish you the patience and fortitude to blithely smile and keep your sense of humor intact.
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